Costa del Sol Quarterly Price and Transaction Tracker: Q2 2026

Costa del Sol property prices accelerated further in the second quarter of 2026, with Málaga province reaching 2,703 EUR per square metre in Tinsa valuation data and Spain’s national index surpassing the 2007 bubble peak in nominal terms for the first time. This tracker pulls the latest figures from Spain’s three primary property data sources, the INE Housing Price Index, the Colegio de Registradores Estadistica Registral Inmobiliaria, and the Tinsa IMIE Mercados Locales index, into one quarterly read with a visible last-updated stamp. Last updated: 23 July 2026, reflecting Tinsa Q2 2026 data published 30 June 2026, the Tinsa IMIE June 2026 General index published 14 July 2026, and the INE ETDP for May 2026 published 14 July 2026.

What happened to Costa del Sol prices in Q2 2026?

Málaga province, which covers the Costa del Sol from Nerja to Manilva, recorded an average valuation of 2,703 EUR per square metre in the second quarter of 2026, a 15.05 per cent year-on-year increase, according to Tinsa’s IMIE Mercados Locales data. That outpaced the Andalusia regional average of 1,731 EUR per square metre (up 10.6 per cent) and sat close to the national IMIE year-on-year rate of 15.5 per cent. For a 90 square metre apartment at the provincial average, that implies a valuation of roughly 243,227 EUR, up from 233,986 EUR in Q1.

The INE’s transaction-based Housing Price Index, which covers actual registered sale prices rather than valuations, has not yet published Q2 2026 data. The latest available read remains Q1 2026, when the index rose 12.9 per cent year-on-year nationally, the highest annual rate since 2007. Second-hand housing, which dominates the Costa del Sol resale market, rose 13.5 per cent, while new build rose 9.1 per cent. The INE notes a methodological change to base 2025 equals 100 plus an updated statistical model that distinguishes whether the buyer is European and whether the property sits in a tourist province, a variable that directly captures the Costa del Sol’s buyer mix. The Q2 2026 HPI is expected in early September 2026.

The Colegio de Registradores recorded an average registered price of 2,429 EUR per square metre nationally in Q1 2026, a new all-time high, up 8.9 per cent year-on-year. Its repeat-sales price index (IPVVR), which tracks the same properties sold twice to isolate genuine price movement, jumped 17.6 per cent year-on-year and sat 36.5 per cent above the 2007 bubble peak. The Registradores ERI for Q2 2026 is expected in August 2026.

Did Spanish house prices surpass the 2007 peak in 2026?

Yes, in nominal terms. Tinsa’s June 2026 IMIE General index, published 14 July 2026, showed the average Spanish property value sitting 0.5 per cent above the 2007 bubble peak, the first time the nominal high has been exceeded. Three of the five geographic groups in the Tinsa index are now at historical highs: the islands, 26 per cent above their 2000s peak; capitals and large cities, 3 per cent above; and metropolitan areas, 2 per cent above.

In real terms, adjusting for inflation accumulated since 2007, the picture is different. Tinsa’s director of studies, Cristina Arias, notes that discounting inflation, values remain around 32 per cent below the 2007 peak. The islands are closest, at 10 per cent below, while the rest of the groups sit more than 30 per cent below in real terms. The nominal milestone is a psychological marker, but the real-terms gap shows how much further prices would need to rise to match the 2007 bubble’s purchasing power.

The national IMIE year-on-year rate of 15.5 per cent for Q2 2026 is the highest since the third quarter of 2006, and growth has intensified every quarter without interruption since Q4 2024, according to Tinsa. The rate runs 11.8 percentage points above general inflation.

How many homes sold on the Costa del Sol?

The INE’s Transmisiones de Derechos de la Propiedad statistics, which count transfers registered in the property registry, recorded 56,462 housing sales in May 2026 alone, down 7.3 per cent year-on-year, the largest annual decline in the recent series. New build transactions fell 6.0 per cent and second-hand fell 7.6 per cent. Of the housing sold, 21.1 per cent was new and 78.9 per cent was used.

Andalusia was one of only two autonomous communities to post an increase in registered housing sales in May 2026, at 2.2 per cent year-on-year, alongside Extremadura at 2.6 per cent. The biggest declines were in Cantabria (down 28.6 per cent), the Región de Murcia (down 19.1 per cent) and the Balearic Islands (down 16.8 per cent).

The Registradores ERI for Q1 2026, the latest quarterly registry-based count, recorded 178,096 registered housing sales nationally, down 1.9 per cent year-on-year but still the third highest quarterly figure since 2007. Málaga province recorded 8,714 sales in Q1, the fifth largest provincial market. The Q2 2026 ERI is expected in August 2026.

The table below summarises the latest available read across the three primary sources.

Metric	Latest value	Period	Source	Year-on-year change
Málaga province valuation	2,703 EUR per m2	Q2 2026	Tinsa IMIE	+15.05%
Andalusia regional valuation	1,731 EUR per m2	Q2 2026	Tinsa IMIE	+10.6%
National IMIE valuation index	+15.5% YoY	Q2 2026	Tinsa IMIE	+15.5%
National HPI (transaction-based)	Index 2025=100	Q1 2026	INE	+12.9%
National repeat-sales index	36.5% above 2007 peak	Q1 2026	Registradores IPVVR	+17.6%
National average registered price	2,429 EUR per m2	Q1 2026	Registradores ERI	+8.9%
National registered sales	178,096	Q1 2026	Registradores ERI	-1.9%
Málaga province registered sales	8,714	Q1 2026	Registradores ERI	n/a
National housing sales (monthly)	56,462	May 2026	INE ETDP	-7.3%

For a buyer weighing the Costa del Sol against other Spanish markets, the Málaga rental yields tracker breaks down what those prices translate to in buy-to-let returns by area, and the cost of buying guide adds the 12 to 15 per cent transaction cost layer on top of the purchase price.

Who is buying Costa del Sol property in 2026?

Foreign buyers accounted for 34.3 per cent of registered housing purchases in Málaga province in Q1 2026, the second highest foreign-buyer weight of any Spanish province after Alicante at 44.65 per cent, according to the Registradores ERI. That puts Málaga ahead of the Balearic Islands (28.89 per cent), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (26.05 per cent) and Girona (24.7 per cent). The Registradores note that tourist intensity is the key factor driving foreign buyer concentration, which directly explains the Costa del Sol’s outsized share.

Nationally, foreign buyers made up 13.9 per cent of all registered purchases in Q1 2026, roughly 24,791 transactions. UK buyers remained the largest single nationality at 6.82 per cent of foreign purchases, followed by the Netherlands at 6.56 per cent, Morocco at 6.21 per cent, Germany at 6.09 per cent and Italy at 5.54 per cent. The Registradores also record average prices paid by world region: North American buyers paid the highest average at 4,583 EUR per square metre, followed by Oceania at 3,160, Asia at 3,041 and EU buyers at 2,890, all above the national average of 2,429 EUR per square metre. Q2 2026 foreign buyer data will be published with the Registradores ERI in August 2026.

The nationality mix matters for the Costa del Sol specifically. The dominance of UK, Dutch and German buyers aligns with the relocation and second-home flows covered in our UK buyers post-Brexit guide and the relocation playbook.

Is the market cooling or still rising?

The Q2 2026 read shows a widening split between price growth and transaction volume. Price growth is accelerating: the national IMIE rate rose from 14.3 per cent in Q1 to 15.5 per cent in Q2, and Tinsa’s monthly data shows the rate holding at 15.4 per cent in both April and May 2026 before rising to 15.6 per cent in June. Growth has intensified every quarter since Q4 2024. The average Spanish property value surpassed the 2007 nominal peak in June 2026.

Transaction volume, by contrast, is declining more sharply. The INE recorded a 7.3 per cent year-on-year drop in May 2026 housing sales, the largest annual decline in the recent series, with new build down 6.0 per cent and second-hand down 7.6 per cent. The Registradores Q1 2026 read already showed 30 of Spain’s 50 provinces recording quarterly transaction declines, though 41 still posted year-on-year increases.

Tinsa’s director of studies, Cristina Arias, attributes the price strength to a supply shortage: strong population growth has met a context of scarce residential supply that continues to fuel price increases, even as transaction growth slows. The Registradores explicitly note that demand is not insensitive to price and that high growth generates doubts about its medium-term sustainability.

For the Costa del Sol specifically, the combination of limited new supply, sustained foreign demand at over a third of transactions, and provincial valuation growth of 15.05 per cent points to a market where prices are still appreciating but transaction volume is plateauing. The Nueva Andalucía price tracker shows the micro-market level data behind that provincial read.

How does the Costa del Sol compare to other Spanish markets?

Málaga province’s 15.05 per cent year-on-year valuation growth (Tinsa Q2 2026) places it above the Andalusia regional average (10.6 per cent) and close to the national IMIE average (15.5 per cent). The highest regional year-on-year increases in Q2 2026 were in the Comunidad Valenciana at 20.7 per cent, Castilla-La Mancha at 20.3 per cent, and Canarias and Cantabria both at 18.2 per cent. Andalusia at 10.6 per cent was among the lower regional rates, though still in double digits.

By province, the strongest Q2 2026 year-on-year increases were Toledo at 24.8 per cent, Albacete at 21.1 per cent, Guipuzcoa at 20.8 per cent, and Valencia and Alicante both at 20.7 per cent. Málaga’s 15.05 per cent places it in the upper-middle band: above the regional average but below the fastest-rising provinces.

The Registradores ERI shows Málaga ranks fifth nationally by transaction volume and second by foreign buyer weight, which is a stronger signal of the Costa del Sol’s market character than a single price average. The province’s combination of high volume, high foreign share and above-regional-average price growth distinguishes it from inland Andalusian markets where prices are lower and foreign participation is thinner.

For buyers comparing the Costa del Sol against Sotogrande or Estepona specifically, the Sotogrande vs Marbella comparison and the New Golden Mile guide carry the sub-market detail this provincial tracker does not.

What should a buyer take from the Q2 2026 data?

Three practical reads. First, the price trend is not just continuing but accelerating, with the national IMIE rate at its highest since 2006 and the average value surpassing the 2007 nominal peak. A buyer waiting for a correction is paying an opportunity cost in appreciation that, at current rates, exceeds most financing costs. Second, transaction volume is falling more sharply, with the INE recording the largest annual decline in the recent series in May 2026, which means less bidding competition but also fewer listings as owners hold rather than sell. Third, the supply shortage that Tinsa identifies as the key price driver is structural, not cyclical: strong population growth against scarce new residential supply means the price pressure is unlikely to ease without a material increase in housing completions.

This tracker will refresh each quarter as the INE, Registradores and Tinsa publish their next releases. The INE Q2 2026 HPI is expected in early September 2026, the Registradores ERI Q2 2026 in August 2026, and Tinsa publishes monthly IMIE updates with a quarterly consolidation in October 2026.